US Geheimdienstkenntnisse lassen viele Fragen offen
Eine meiner favorisierten Arbeitshypothesen lautet: die Fähigkeiten und Kenntnisse von Geheimdiensten im allgemeinen und der CIA im besonderen werden gern überschätzt. Die Belege, auf denen diese Hypothese fußt, sind zahlreich und reichen von abstrusen Behauptungen über den Zustand der Sowjetunion kurz vor ihrem Zusammenbruch bis zur gegenwärtigen Situation im Irak.
Jüngster Beleg:
U.S. intelligence information on Iran is inadequate and may contain misinformation that spy agencies are accepting as solid, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee said Tuesday.
Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., told a Council on Foreign Relations gathering that she and other lawmakers recently received a briefing from intelligence agencies based on information shared with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the U.N. Security Council.
Her bottom line: “I remain skeptical — lots of unanswered questions.” (AP)
Was sie an Geheimdienstinformationen gesehen habe, habe sie eher verwirrt als sie davon überzeugt, dass es sich hier glasklare Erkenntnisse handele.
“The conjecture that I have is that if I were Iran, and I wanted to put out disinformation, it might look a lot like what our government is claiming is information,” she said. “I can’t tell you that’s true, but I can’t tell you it’s not true.”
Harman sagt über sich, sie habe keine Zweifel daran, dass der Iran eine Gefahr darstelle, aber die Details blieben doch ein wenig schwammig.
“The issue is how capable are they and what are the real intentions of Iran’s leaders, and I think the jury is out on both of those,” Harman said.
Übersetzt: die Informationen zu dem behaupteten Atomwaffenprogramm sind recht vage und die CIA hat so gut wie keinen Zugang zu den Diskussionen der Entscheidungsträger.
Für einen Geheimdienst (und eine Regierung), die mehr über finstere Pläne des Irans zu wissen behauptet als beispielsweise die IAEA ist dies – hmmm – verblüffend. Die IAEA kommt nach umfangreichen Recherchen zu dem Ergebnis, es gebe keine Hinweise. Die US Regierungen behauptet dagegen, es gebe sie doch.
Diese Behauptung ist ungefähr so alt wie die Behauptung, der Irak verfüge über Massenvernichtungswaffen. Anders als im Fall Irak hat sie bis heute überlebt. Washington ist jeden öffentlichen Beweis, der über das hinaus geht, was in den IAEA Berichten zu lesen ist, allerdings bislang schuldig geblieben.
Vielleicht liegt es daran, dass die CIA doch weit weniger weiß, als sie uns glaubhaft machen will.
Nach den Erfahrungen mit den Geheimdienstdisaster im Irak untersuchte eine neunköpfige Kommission, die von Präsident George W. Bush eingesetzt wurde, Anfang letzten Jahres die Qualität der Erkenntnisse über den Iran.
The nine-member bipartisan presidential panel, led by Laurence Silberman, a retired federal judge, and Charles S. Robb, a former governor and senator from Virginia, had unrestricted access to the most senior people and the most sensitive documents of the intelligence agencies. (NYT, 9 März 2005)
Ergebnis:
In its report, the panel is also expected to be sharply critical of American intelligence on North Korea. But in interviews, people who have been briefed on the commission’s deliberations and conclusions said they regarded the record on Iran as particularly worrisome.
One person who described the panel’s deliberations and conclusions characterized American intelligence on Iran as “scandalous,” given the importance and relative openness of the country, compared with such an extreme case as North Korea.
That person and others who have been briefed on the panel’s work would not be more specific in describing the inadequacies. But former government officials who are experts on Iran say that while American intelligence agencies have devoted enormous resources to Iran since the
Islamic revolution of 1979, they have had little success in the kinds of human spying necessary to understand Iranian decision-making.
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gepostet am 5. April 2006 um 08:55 von unter USA. Alle Kommentare können über den RSS 2.0 feed verfolgt werden.
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